Overview

International shipping is the backbone of global trade with almost 90% of world trade carried by the international shipping industry annually (amounting to about 1.5 tons per person per year)!

The Future of Global Trade is an exploratory foresight report that provides an overview of the complex history & current state of global trade, identifies trends & drivers of change, and explores a range of plausible future scenarios in the year 2050.

Implications for the most provocative scenario are considered through the lens of the imagined client for this work, American Big Box Retailers.

Approach

This research was conducted as part of my spring 2023 semester “World Futures” class in pursuit of a master’s degree in Foresight from the University of Houston (UH). This project followed the UH Framework Foresight process beginning with a futures research signal scan, analysis of signals into trends, identification of drivers of change, the creation of four plausible scenarios based on critical uncertainties, and an implications analysis based on the most provocative scenario.

Outcomes

In an attempt to present this report in way that is compelling, unique, and authentic the Future of Global Trade report is presented as a Miro board-turned-cargo-ship lovingly christened the "Everfuture." Most of the "containers" on this ship are filled will signals of change, trends, alternative future scenarios, and strategic implications. Content can be navigated using a linear path (using Miro's frame navigation) or scrolled about leisurely; and there is also a Miro TalkTrack available which provides a guided walkthrough of the project.

Welcome aboard the Everfuture! 🚢

Credits

Client: US “Big Box” Retailers (imagined) Role: Creator Year: 2023